Mitch became a hurricane at 0600 UTC 24 October while located about 255 n mi south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.
Later that day, as it turned toward the west, Mitch began a period of rapid
intensification. During a 24 hour period beginning on the afternoon of the 24^th, its central pressure dropped 52
mb, to 924 mb. With a symmetric, well-established upper-tropospheric outflow pattern evident on satellite
imagery, the hurricane continued to strengthen. On the afternoon of the 26^th, the central pressure reached a
minimum of 905 mb, while the cyclone was centered about 50 n mi southeast of Swan Island.
This pressure is the fourth lowest ever measured in an Atlantic hurricane, tied with Hurricane Camille in
1969. This is also the lowest pressure ever observed in an October hurricane in the Atlantic basin.
Prior to Mitch, the strongest measured October hurricane in the northwest Caribbean was Hurricane Hattie in
1961 with a central pressure of 924 mb.
At its peak on the 26^th, Mitch's maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds were estimated to be
155 knots, a category five hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale.

After passing over Swan Island on the 27 October, Mitch began to gradually weaken while
moving slowly westward. It then turned southwestward and southward toward the Bay Islands off the coast of
Honduras. The center passed very near the island of Guanaja as a category four hurricane. Mitch slowly
weakened as its circulation interacted with the land mass of Honduras.

From mid-day on the 27^th, to early on the 29^th,the central pressure rose 59 mb.
The center of the hurricane meandered near the north coast of Honduras from late
on the 27^th through the 28^th, before making landfall during the morning of the 29^th
about 70 n mi east of la Ceiba with estimated surface winds of 70 knots and a minimum central
pressure of 987 mb.

After making landfall, Mitch moved slowly southward, then southwestward and westward, over
Honduras, weakening to a tropical storm by 0600 UTC 30 October, and to a tropical depression by 1800 UTC
31 October.

The overall motion was slow, less than 4 knots, for a week. This resulted in a tremendous
amount of rainfall, estimated at up to 35 inches, primarily over Honduras and Nicaragua -- see Table 2. The
heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods and mudslides that killed thousands of people. It is noted that a large
east-west mountain range, with peaks approaching 10,000 feet, covers this part of Central America and this
terrain likely contributed to the large rainfall totals. Some heavy rains also occurred in other portions of Central
America.

Although Mitch's surface circulation center dissipated near the Guatemala/Mexico border on 1
November, the remnant circulation aloft continued to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central
America and eastern Mexico for the next couple of days.

b. Meteorological Statistics

The best-track intensities in Table 1 were obtained from the data in
Figures 2 (27K GIF) and 3
(31K GIF) which depict the curves of minimum central sea-level pressure and maximum sustained one-minute
average "surface" (10 meters above ground level) wind speed, respectively, as a function of time. The data
these curves are based on, also plotted in the figures, include USAFR and
NOAA aircraft reconnaissance data,
Dvorak-based intensity estimates from TAFB,
SAB, and the
U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFGWC in figures).

Table 2 lists rainfall observations from Honduras, with a maximum of 35.89 inches from
Choluteca. Even higher values may have gone unobserved. Table 3 lists selected surface observations from
Florida, where the highest observed sustained wind speed was 52 knots, at an
elevation of 43.9 meters, from the Fowey Rock C-MAN station just offshore of Miami. Significant ship reports
are listed in Table 4.

Five tornadoes were spawned by Mitch in South Florida: two in the Florida Keys, one each in
Broward, Palm Beach, and Collier Counties. The most significant of these (F2 intensity) occurred in the upper
Florida Keys, Islamorada to North Key Largo.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

The estimated death toll from Mitch currently stands at 9,086. Fact Sheet #21 from the U.S.
Agency for International Development (Table 6), as of December 1998, compiled the following death totals:
Honduras, 5677; Nicaragua, 2,863; Guatemala, 258; El Salvador; 239; Mexico, 9 and 7 in Costa Rica. The
death toll also includes 31 fatalities associated with the schooner Fantome. In addition, another 9191 persons
were listed as missing. The exact death toll will probably never be known. However, this was one of the
deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclones in history, ranking below only the 1780 "Great Hurricane" in the lesser
Antilles, and comparable to the Galveston hurricane of 1900, and Hurricane Fifi of 1974, the latter also striking
Honduras.

Mitch also claimed two lives in Monroe County, Florida. Both deaths were drowning-related
incidents resulting from a fishing boat capsizing.

It has been estimated that there was a 50 percent loss to Honduras' agricultural crops.
At least 70,000 houses were damaged and more than 92 bridges were damaged or destroyed. There was severe
damage to the infrastructure of Honduras and entire communities were isolated from outside assistance. To a
lesser extent, damage was similar in Nicaragua, where a large mudslide inundated ten communities situated at
the base of La Casitas Volcano. Guatemala and El Salvador also suffered from flash floods which destroyed
thousands of homes, along with bridges and roads.

The Florida tornadoes injured 65 people and damaged or destroyed 645 homes.

Insured property damage supplied by the Florida insurance Council puts the insured damage
estimate for Florida at $20 million. These estimates exclude storm surge damage. To determine the total
estimated damage, a ratio of 2:1 is applied to the insured property damage; this is based on comparisons done
in historical hurricanes. Thus, the U.S. total estimated damage from Mitch is $40 million.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Table 5 lists the various watches and warnings issued.
Hurricane warnings were issued for
Jamaica, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. A
tropical storm warning was issued for the Cayman Islands,
the Gulf of Mexico coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and South Florida and the Florida Keys.
As the effects of Mitch on Nicaragua were confined to rainfall flooding,
there were no hurricane warnings there.

The average official track forecast errors for Mitch were 39, 80, 125, 167, and 237 n mi for the
12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hr forecast periods, respectively - see Table 7. The number of forecasts
ranged from 41 at the 12-hr period to 28 at the 72-hr period. The average track errors are quite similar to the
average official forecast for the previous ten years. The official forecasts are plotted in
Fig. 4(a) (35K GIF) and this
shows that there was a persistent northwest bias to these forecasts. The official track forecast was for a slow
mostly northwestward motion for the many days that the hurricane was in the northwestern Caribbean as
suggested models. Mitch actually moved westward and then southward and the forecast turn toward the
northwest did not take place until the hurricane had moved over Honduras and Nicaragua. Some of the most
reliable guidance models also had this track bias, as shown in Fig. 4(b)
(35K GIF) which shows the GFDL model track forecasts. In retrospect,
the slow southward, then southwestward, motion which began early on
the 27^th, was likely due to a weak mid-level anticyclone over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the absence
of rawinsonde data from Mexico and Central America likely hindered the track prediction models and
forecasters from resolving this feature during the event.

The average absolute official wind speed forecast errors ranged from 9 knots at 12-hr to 35
knots at 72-hr - see Table 8. These are somewhat larger than the previous ten-year averages. Also, there
were under-forecasts as large as 75 knots for the 72-hr forecast verifying at 1800 UTC on the 26^th, which is the
time of the estimated peak surface wind of 155 knots. Overall, the official
intensity forecasts indicated a general strengthening trend between the 24^th and the 26^th.

Acknowledgments:

The authors are appreciative to the National Weather Service Offices in
Melbourne, Tampa,
and Miami, Florida for their post-storm reports and related data.
Rainfall data from Honduras was provided by the Honduras Weather Service. The U.S. damage estimate data was
supplied by the Florida Insurance Council. Steve Baig produced the best track map insert. The authors wish to
thank Lixion Avila, Jack Beven,
Jerry Jarrell, Max Mayfield, Richard Pasch, and Ed Rappaport for
reviewing this document and making numerous suggestions which helped improve the report.